Benjamin Franklin and Biofuels: Predictions for 2025

As uncertainty clouds the regulatory landscape, three new tools will help provide clarity, simplicity and enhanced decision-making for the challenging year ahead.

At the start of last year, I predicted that 2024 would be “the year traceability goes global.” Now, as the year draws to a close (as of the writing of this piece), I feel confident saying that prediction has come to fruition. From regulatory shifts to voluntary market growth, traceability has cemented its place as a foundational principle across renewable energy and sustainability industries.

In the United States, scrutiny around feedstocks tightened significantly. The U.S. EPA announced audits of used cooking oil (UCO)-based biofuels, spotlighting the importance of verifying feedstock origins. Across the Atlantic, the European Union made strides in implementing its Union Database for Biofuels, though delays hampered full adoption. These developments, among others, reflect a growing recognition that traceability isn’t just desirable—it’s now essential for compliance across the various global regulatory programs.

2024, however, wasn’t solely focused on regulatory compliance. Voluntary markets saw remarkable growth driven by the adoption of frameworks like book-and-claim systems to tackle the complexities of scaling decarbonization efforts. Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) emerged as a key focus, signaling a broader shift toward the rising significance of biofuels, including marine fuels, in the years ahead. Yet this rapid expansion wasn’t without challenges. Allegations of fraudulent accounting in offset programs highlighted weaknesses in the system, emphasizing the urgent need for reliable and rigorous verification mechanisms.

At the same time, rising global renewable energy demand added pressure. The artificial-intelligence (AI) revolution—with its immense computational needs—has accelerated the demand for renewable energy. Increasingly, stakeholders are asking for more than sustainability commitments; they’re demanding proof backed by clear, end-to-end traceability systems.

Regulatory Fog: A Challenging Backdrop

Even as traceability becomes a global priority, uncertainty clouds the regulatory landscape. In the U.S., key questions remain unanswered. Guidance for the 45Z clean fuel production tax credit is still pending, and speculation about extending the biodiesel and renewable diesel blenders tax credit (BTC) leaves businesses in limbo. Legal battles over renewable volume obligations (RVOs) and small-refinery exemptions (SREs) further complicate planning for 2025.

California continues to lead the way in setting ambitious standards, with the California Air Resources Board adopting stricter targets for its Low Carbon Fuel Standard this past November. With that, CARB is updating its pathway requirements for renewable fuels used in the program, including feedstock verification and traceability as evidenced by the “Tracking Feedstock Characteristics” request for information (RFI) it issued in October. A similar dynamic is unfolding in Europe, where heightened targets are being introduced, yet the timeline for implementing the UDB remains unclear. This further underscores the growing challenge of aligning ambitious policy objectives with the practicalities of enforcement, leaving businesses on both sides of the Atlantic grappling with shifting compliance landscapes.

This regulatory fog demands not just vigilance but adaptability. Companies must not only track their compliance today but ensure they can pivot quickly as rules shift. Bio optionality™—the ability to flexibly operate in and around global bio markets, while ensuring you can adapt to dynamic regulatory and compliance requirements—will be critical in navigating the uncertainties ahead.

Expanding the Value of Traceability

In this volatile environment, traceability and sustainability management provide businesses with a guiding principle. They deliver the transparency and data integrity needed to substantiate sustainability claims, deter fraud and meet compliance requirements. But beyond compliance, they empower companies to respond proactively to market changes, giving them a competitive edge in a rapidly evolving space.

At Veriflux, we’ve built our platform to deliver precisely that. By enabling end-to-end visibility across supply chains, we help businesses demonstrate authenticity, maintain flexibility and uphold their commitments to sustainability and circularity. Whether in regulated markets or voluntary frameworks, traceability is the foundation for success.

In 2025, we are excited to build on the value of our existing tools—Collect, Veriflux360 and Recordkeeper—with the introduction of three new products: FLUX AI, Attributes and Ledger. These tools will add powerful new dimensions to the Veriflux system, making it even easier for businesses to adapt to regulatory complexity and strengthen their sustainability claims. Together, they are designed to provide clarity, simplicity and enhanced decision-making in navigating the challenges of the year ahead.

A New Year in Focus

Benjamin Franklin, ever a wise man, once remarked that nothing is certain except death and taxes. With tax guidance for 45Z still outstanding, uncertainty around BTC extensions and shifting regulations across the board, the only certainty in biofuels today seems to be uncertainty itself. And yet, two constants stand out: the growing importance of supply chain traceability and the need for companies to adapt to evolving rules while preserving bio optionality™. If Franklin were alive today, he might add, “Nothing is certain except death and the necessity of Veriflux.” A wise man indeed.

Author: Dani Charles

Co-founder, Veriflux

720-838-7233

dani@veriflux.io