EIA: US sustainable aviation fuel production capacity to grow exponentially this year

SAF is one fuel tracked as a lump sum under EIA's "other biofuels" category.

Production capacity of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) in the United States could increase from around 2,000 barrels (84,000 gallons) per day to nearly 30,000 barrels (nearly 1.26 million gallons) per day in 2024 if all announced capacity additions come online.

Developers expect Phillips 66’s Rodeo Renewed project to produce up to about 10,000 barrels (420,000 gallons) per day of SAF beginning this summer and Diamond Green Diesel’s Port Arthur, Texas, SAF project to produce about 15,000 barrels (630,000 gallons) per day of SAF by the end of the year.

SAF is an alternative to petroleum jet fuel.

It’s produced from agricultural and waste feedstocks and is consumed in blends with petroleum jet fuel.

Investments in SAF have increased due to the U.S. EPA’s Renewable Fuel Standard, federal tax credits, and state programs and tax credits incentivizing use of the fuel.

The White House also set a goal of meeting 100 percent of U.S. aviation-fuel demand with SAF by 2050.

About 1.6 million barrels (67.2 million gallons) per day of petroleum jet fuel was consumed in the United States in 2023, and the U.S. Energy Information Administration projects U.S. jet-fuel demand in 2050 to exceed 2 million barrels (84 million gallons) per day in its 2023 Annual Energy Outlook.

EIA captures SAF production data in the “other biofuels” category of its Petroleum Supply Monthly.

In addition to SAF, the “other biofuels” category includes renewable heating oil, renewable naphtha, renewable propane, renewable gasoline and other emerging biofuels that are in various stages of development and commercialization.

Historically, production of other biofuels in the United States has been minimal.

Because renewable naphtha and renewable propane are byproducts of a growing renewable diesel industry, however, production of other biofuels has been growing as well.

U.S. production of other biofuels increased from just 2,000 barrels (84,000 gallons) per day in 2020 to 19,000 barrels (798,000 gallons) per day in 2023.

SAF production has historically comprised a small portion of other biofuels production because of restricted production capacity.

At the beginning of 2024, U.S. SAF production capacity was only around 2,000 barrels (84,000 gallons) per day, with only two plants capable of producing SAF: World Energy’s plant in Paramount, California, and Montana Renewables’ plant in Great Falls, Montana.

In its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, EIA forecasts that U.S. production of other biofuels will increase by about 50 percent in 2024 and almost double from 2024 to 2025.

EIA does not publish a forecast for each fuel that makes up the category.

The primary driver for its forecasted increase in other biofuels production—from 19,000 barrels (798,000 gallons) per day in 2023 to 51,000 barrels (more than 2.14 million gallons) per day in 2025—is increasing U.S. SAF production capacity.

Because EIA forecasts renewable diesel production to continue increasing, it also expects production of renewable diesel byproducts to increase through 2025 and explains some of the growth in its other biofuels production forecast.