Global rapeseed production insufficient to cover consumption need

In view of a decline in production area and anticipated lower yields, the International Grains Council expects world rapeseed production in 2024-’25 to fall short of the previous year’s level.

The IGC recently projected production to reach 87.2 million metric tons, representing a 2 percent drop from the previous season.

In other words, the IGC revised its previous month’s forecast down 900,000 tons.

The main reason for the decline is a presumably smaller harvest in Australia.

Following a sharp drop in the previous season, production is expected to continue decreasing in the current crop year.

Australian production is currently projected at 5.4 million tons, around 700,000 tons less than forecast in May and 4.5 percent below the previous year’s level.

At 4.9 million tons, Ukraine is anticipated to harvest around 500,000 tons less than previously expected.

The country has seen quite changeable weather, with favorable conditions during the winter months followed by dry spells and extreme heat in recent weeks.

Similarly, Western Europe has also experienced adverse weather conditions.

Excessive rains, waterlogging and pests impaired crop development, especially in France, Germany and the U.K., thus limiting the yield potential.

As a result, production in the EU is currently seen at 18.7 million tons, which would translate to a 5.1 percent decline on a year earlier.  

In the light of lower global rapeseed supply, global consumption is also expected to decline in 2024-’25.

At 88.7 million tons, demand is seen to be around 0.5 percent down on the previous year and 800,000 tons below the previous month’s level.

According to investigations conducted by Agrarmarkt Informations-Gesellschaft (mbH), with world production projected at 87.2 million tons, this would mean a global supply shortfall of 1.5 million tons.

Against this background, end-of-year stocks are likely to decrease more sharply than previously expected.

At 5.6 million tons, the amount of rapeseed in storage would be as much as around 21 percent smaller than it was the previous year and 1 million tons smaller than forecast last month.

In view of the IGC forecast, the Union zur Förderung von Oel- und Proteinpflanzen e.V. (UFOP) said it expects strong to rising prices at the time of sowing this year and advises farmers to plan rapeseed production areas to meet the crop rotation requirements on their farms.

Demand for rapeseed oil in biodiesel fuel and future renewable diesel production is supported by the discontinuation of the option of crediting palm oil-based biofuels towards greenhouse-gas reduction obligations in Germany and other member states, including France and Sweden.

The association has highlighted that demand from the biofuels industry has a strong influence on rapeseed acreage and therefore also crop-rotation diversity.

According to UFOP, this fact also safeguards the availability for the purpose of food supply, because the final use is always in the food market with its high willingness to pay.