IATA: ‘Disappointingly slow growth’ in global SAF production
The International Air Transport Association released Dec. 10 new estimates for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production showing that:
In 2024, SAF production volumes reached 1 million metric tons (1.3 billion liters, or 343.4 million gallons), double the 0.5 million tons (600 million liters) produced in 2023.
SAF accounted for 0.3 percent of global jet fuel production and 11 percent of global renewable fuel.
This is significantly below previous estimates that projected SAF production in 2024 at 1.5 million tons (1.9 billion liters), as key SAF facilities in the U.S. have pushed back their production ramp up to the first half of 2025.
In 2025, SAF production is expected to reach 2.1 million tons (2.7 billion liters) or 0.7 percent of total jet fuel production and 13 percent of global renewable fuel capacity.
“SAF volumes are increasing, but disappointingly slowly,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s director general. “Governments are sending mixed signals to oil companies, which continue to receive subsidies for their exploration and production of fossil oil and gas. And investors in new-generation fuel producers seem to be waiting for guarantees of easy money before going full throttle. With airlines, the core of the value chain, earning just a 3.6 percent net margin, profitability expectations for SAF investors need to be slow and steady, not fast and furious. But make no mistake that airlines are eager to buy SAF and there is money to be made by investors and companies who see the long-term future of decarbonization. Governments can accelerate progress by winding down fossil-fuel production subsidies and replacing them with strategic production incentives and clear policies supporting a future built on renewable energies, including SAF.”
Marie Owens Thomsen, IATA’s senior vice president of sustainability and chief economist, added, “The airline industry’s decarbonization must be seen as part of the global energy transition, not compartmentalized as a transport issue. That’s because solving the energy-transition challenge for aviation will also benefit the wider economy, as renewable fuel refineries will produce a broad range of fuels used by other industries and only a minor share will be SAF used by airlines. We need the whole world to produce as much renewable energy as possible for everybody. Airlines simply want to access their fair share of that output.”
To reach net-zero CO2 emissions by 2050, IATA analysis shows that between 3,000 to over 6,500 new renewable fuel plants will be needed.
These will also produce renewable diesel and other fuels for other industries.
The annual average capex needed to build the new facilities over the 30-year period is about $128 billion per year, in a best-case scenario.
Importantly, this amount is significantly less than the estimated total sum of investments in the solar and wind energy markets at $280 billion per year between 2004 and 2022.
“Governments must quickly deliver concrete policy incentives to rapidly accelerate renewable energy production,” Walsh said. “There is already a model to follow with the transition to wind and solar power. The good news is that the energy transition, which includes SAF, will need less than half the annual investments that realizing wind and solar production at scale required. And a good portion of the needed funding could be realized by redirecting a portion of the retrograde subsidies that governments give to the fossil-fuel industry.”
Short-term measures
According to IATA, progress on expanding SAF production and use could be accelerated in three critical ways:
Increase coprocessing: Existing refineries can be used to coprocess up to 5 percent of approved renewable feedstocks alongside the crude-oil streams. This solution can be implemented quickly and requires minimal material investments. It should urgently be expanded by allowing a greater amount of renewable feedstock to be coprocessed. By 2050, coprocessing could save $347 billion in capex as more than 260 new renewable fuel plants would not need to be built.
Diversify SAF production: There are 11 certified pathways to make SAF, but the hydrotreated esters fatty acids (HEFA) method utilizing fats and oils accounts for around 80 percent of production in the next five years. SAF volumes could be boosted by increasing investments to scale up production through the other certified pathways, according to IATA, in particular alcohol-to-jet (AtJ) and Fischer-Tropsch (FT), which use biological and agricultural wastes and residue.
Create a global SAF-accounting framework: It is essential to have a registry that allows airlines to benefit from the environmental attributes of their SAF purchases and to be able to claim these against their obligations in a transparent manner that prevents double counting. Such a registry is necessary for achieving a global SAF market where all airlines can buy SAF, and all SAF producers can sell their fuel to airlines.
Passenger support
A recent IATA survey revealed significant public support for SAF.
Some 86 percent of travelers agreed that governments should provide production incentives for airlines to be able to access SAF.
In addition, 86 percent agreed that it should be a priority for oil companies to supply SAF to airlines.
