ICCT: Aircraft-efficiency improvements have stalled, stronger standards needed

The International Council on Clean Transportation released a new analysis of commercial aircraft fuel efficiency from 1960 to 2024, revealing that improvements have stagnated since international CO2 standards took effect in 2020.

The study comes as policymakers prepared to gather in Montreal, Quebec, Canada, Feb. 17 to update international aviation standards in support of the sector’s 2050 net-zero CO2 goal.

The new working paper, “Fuel burn of new commercial jet aircraft: 1960 to 2024,” finds that the primary cause of the efficiency plateau is a sharp decline in the certification of new, more efficient aircraft types.

New-type certifications have fallen from a peak of six per year in the late 1990s to less than one per year after 2020.

Beyond Boeing’s 777X, manufacturers have not committed to developing additional new aircraft types before 2035.

“This research demonstrates that ICAO’s 2028 CO2 standard lags state-of-the-art technology by about a decade,” said Nikita Pavlenko, ICCT’s aviation program director.

“With improvements in new aircraft expected to contribute about one-sixth of all emission reductions under aviation’s net-zero target, stronger standards are crucial,” Pavlenko added.

The analysis concludes that a CO2 standard 15 percent more stringent than the current requirement is needed to promote the development of new, more efficient aircraft types.

This recommendation comes at a critical time as ICAO’s Committee on Aviation Environmental Protection prepared to meet in Montreal to consider updates to the international CO2 standard.

“The aviation industry’s commitment to net-zero emissions by 2050 requires continuous improvements in aircraft efficiency,” said Mehak Hameed, co-author of the study.

“Our findings suggest that without stronger standards, the industry risks falling short of its climate goals,” Hameed said.

Founded in 2005, ICCT is an independent nonprofit research organization founded to provide research and technical and scientific analysis to environmental regulators.