US soybean production up from September

Photo: United Soybean Board

USDA released its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Oct. 12. The trade was expecting USDA to increase the 2021-’22 soybean-yield projection, but the reported number came in toward the higher end of trade expectations.

Soybean-futures prices had already started falling before the report was released and finished the day down 28 cents.

USDA increased the 2020-’21 soybean-production number by 81 million bushels. This extra supply was put into ending stocks, which raised the 2021-’22 beginning-stocks number. This, along with the extra production for this year, results in more beans expected to be available to the market. Almost all of this is assumed to go into ending stocks.

Soybean crush for the current year is only raised 10 million bushels from last month. This results in a bit more oil and meal.

For oil, use remains unchanged and the extra oil ends up in stocks. Demand is increased for meal, and stocks end the year slightly lower than expected last month.

The season average prices for 2021-’22 are projected to be $12.35 per bushel for soybeans (down from $12.90 last month), 65 cents per pound for soybean oil (unchanged from last month) and $325 per ton for soybean meal (down from $360 last month).